Flag pattern and Pivot Points
Bear and Bull Flags
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1 hour Daily Pivot Point S/R
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In the Asian session, the Euro found support at the weekly S1 and market formed a kind of doji/ pin bar (reversal candle) on the hourly chart (Yesterdays low-blue line). From there, the Euro moved up to the 20 SMA (hourly) where market found some resistance (5 a.m.) (1) before market moved above the 20 SMA up to the daily pivot point at 1.2522 (2).
Daily Pivot Point Trading
The Euro reversed at the daily pivot point and market targeted the recent hourly low at 7 a.m. to clear some stops (3) (no breakout confirmation of the hourly low on 5 min chart) before the euro moved up again and penetrated the daily pivot point (4). However, we see on the 5 min chart (B) that market never confirmed a break of the daily pivot point (no close above the breakout candle).
Market rolled over at the daily pivot point and targeted yesterdays daily low. Yesterdays bearish daily candle made a retest of this low very likely (bearish sentiment) and many stop and limit orders are expected to be below yesterdays low. Market cleared these orders and bounced back and closed again at/ above the weekly S1 on the hourly chart (first breakout is often a false breakout).
On the 5 min chart (below) we also see that the breach of the weekly S1 and yesterdays low did not get confirmed. The 5 min candle at 3:05 p.m. closed at the weekly S1 (respected it) and the following breakout candle penetrated this support level, however, there was no succeeding candle which closed below the range of the breakout candle. Moreover, market bounced back at the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E.
Todays price action in the European session might be seen as a Head and Shoulders pattern (ABC) with the green line as its neckline (5 min chart). Market formed a nice 3 wave consolidation pattern at the neckline (visible on the 1 min chart-bear flag) just prior to the breakout (D)
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5 min Flag patterns
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On the 5 min chart we also see that the Euro bounced back after the unconfirmed breach of the weekly S1 and yesterdays low (blue line) (F), moved up to the 20 SMA (3:45 p.m.) where market consolidated before the Euro went up further and formed a bullish consolidation (bull flag). The green neckline seemed to provide some resistance. The bull flag got triggered, supported by the rising 20 SMA on the 5 min chart and market moved up again.
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