Butterfly Sell chart pattern - best forex trading signals provider

Butterfly Sell chart pattern ~ best forex trading signals provider

Butterfly Sell price target

EUR/USD Technical Chart Analysis

On Friday, we had a perfect butterfly sell chart pattern. Today, the Euro initially went down (Evening Star chart pattern from Friday) and found support at the 61.80 %  fib retracement (1.2889) and resistance at the hourly trend line (blue).

1 hour Butterfly sell pattern

Typical Consolidation Pattern

On the 5 min EURUSD Chart below another typical three swing consolidation pattern is visible just at the daily Pivot Point support. The breakout of the consolidation pattern occurred with the start of the new hourly candle at 12. a.m. (Important Timing Point). The up move of the Euro found resistance at the hourly downward sloping trend line.


Interestingly, the consolidation pattern and the false breakout to the 161 % Fibonacci level at 1.2979 is very similar to the butterfly sell chart pattern. After the false price breakout to the upside to the major 161 % butterfly sell target market reversed and retraced the up move. The Euro targeted the final 161 % butterfly sell target at 1.2940, where the EURUSD paused a while before market continued the downward move to the weekly Pivot Point. The weekly Pivot provided solid support (together with the 100 % Fibonacci Extension level of the recent swing at 1.2932) and the Euro bounced back up to the daily Pivot Point.

Overall, the daily Pivot Point provided solid support at 11 a.m.. After the confirmed break of the daily Pivot to the downside at around 3 p.m. the daily Pivot changed its role from support to resistance as often after a confirmed break of important chart levels.

5 min EURUSD Analysis

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Price target Pivots Fibonacci - world best forex trading signals

Price target Pivots Fibonacci ~ world best forex trading signals

Head and Shoulders neckline

Butterfly sell pattern

Chart pattern Price target

On the daily Chart of the EUR/USD we see a Head and Shoulders Chart pattern. The Euro closed at the brown neckline on the 5th of July and broke through the neckline on the next trading day, which triggered the Head and Shoulders pattern.


A close at Support/ Resistance levels, like the close at the Head and Shoulders neckline (blue circle), often weakens this Support/ Resistance level (see Breakout Trading/ Breakout Timing) so that a break of this S/R level (for a true breakout or a false breakout where price bounces back strongly - Stop Running and fooling breakout traders) is likely.


The target of the Head and Shoulders pattern is often the 100 % Fibonacci Extension level from the price range of the largest swing of the Head and Shoulders formation moved to the neckline break. The smaller 61.80 Fibonacci Extension level also led to a minor price reaction of the EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD bounced from this Head and Shoulders price target and started a strong upward leg after hitting the 100 % Fibonacci Extension price target of this chart pattern.

Daily Head and Shoulder pattern

The 4 hour chart below shows that the recent up move in the EUR/USD market found resistance at the monthly S1, which coincided with the daily Resistance (pink line) and the consolidation price zone of the small and tight consolidation chart pattern on the left side of the 4 hour chart below. Hence, the level around the monthly S1 at 1.2388 was likely to lead to a price reaction due to the confluence of different resistance levels.

4-hour Eur/Usd Chart Analysis

The 1 hour chart below emphasises the importance of Pivot Point analysis. The daily Pivot at 1.2243 led to a strong upward move and marks the low of todays trading range, whereby the daily R1 and the monthly S1 capped the market price besides the other reasons mentioned above.

The red ellipses show Breakout Timing setups, where market price closed at Support/ resistance before breaking it with the start of the new candle, whereby the blue ellipses are marking price reactions at important Support/ Resistance.

1-hour Eur/Usd Chart Analysis

The 5 min Euro Chart shows the importance of the daily Chart level at around 1.2290 where marked price reacted repeatedly. Furthermore, the daily chart level also changed its role between support and resistance repeatedly depending on price action in regards of true/ false price breakouts of this level.

In addition, there is a Butterfly sell pattern on the 5 min EUR/USD chart, which worked out very well. The failed breakout of the consolidation pattern (green circle) to the upside terminated at the monthly S1, which coincided with the 127 % Butterfly level, and price broke through the opposite consolidation boundary with strong momentum.

5-min Butterfly sell pattern

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Price behaviour using EWT A case study on Yen - top 5 forex trading signals

Price behaviour using EWT A case study on Yen ~ top 5 forex trading signals

I have still not yet found any chart theory or technical methodology that can can be used as a market predictive tool like the elliot wave theory. 

Elliot waves theorys ability to distinguish distinctly between a trend and correction is itself a tool which, if well used, builds confidence in a trader.

On 3rd June, I posted an analysis on Yen titled What the charts are saying about Yen. 

Using elliot wave theory, I was able to predict in advance a turning point for major Yen pairs. Check how price respond to the forecast and their position afterward.

As an elliot wave theory trader, it is important to understand that nothing is concrete until price validates it. Elliot waves theory discusses how price behaves when trending and correcting. These are also known as Patterns.

Patterns help us to understand and predict what next price could do. When these patterns are put into larger structure, there is in a traders hands, very powerful tools.

After more price actions, I posted an update on the analysis above which I titled Yen is expected to strengthen across board . In this analysis, I singled out UsdJpy and CadJpy which I shorted. UsdJpy was shorted at 124.05 while CadJpy at 99.7. The two pairs dipped especially CadJpy.

CadJpy hit my final target while UsdJpy didnt. I watched 25% of the my UsdJpy opened position hit at break even. CadJpy ran to my target in an explosive manner.

One lesson I want us to learn from this post is how to read price behaviour using elliot wave theory. The chart below shows how UsdJpy dipped and the rally that followed.

 

 

There are two things that support that the bearish move from 125.85 was a mere correction.

1. The dip from 125.85 was a deep (double) zigzag corrective pattern. The leg W was a zigzag, X was a flat and Y was a zigzag.

2. Price advanced from Y in a typical 5-wave impulsive move. This signaled a possible first wave of the bullish resurgence.

Price is expected to dip to probably around 122, and if bounce from there should continue moving up.

I will wait and see what price is saying as I try to unlock an inherent tradable pattern.

You can also watch and what better tool to use if not elliot wave analysis?

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Stop Fishing with False Breakouts - forex trading signals daily

Stop Fishing with False Breakouts ~ forex trading signals daily

False Breakouts to catch Stops

Stop Fishing in Forex

1 hour Stop Fishing | False Breakouts 

The Euro

 penetrated the monthly pivot (second test) but closed above it on the hourly chart (rejection). From there the Euro tried to break to the upside but market could not break the orange line (January low). The penetration of the recent pivots (low, high - red circle on hourly chart) and thus the stop fishing on both sides very often precedes larger moves in the market as most of the traders are already stopped out or trapped in the wrong position.

The failed break to the upside (orange line) with the clearing of the stops above the recent high (1.2614) of the short positions led to a third test of the monthly pivot today, which got already penetrated at the second test (weaker now). Some indication for a break of the monthly pivot were the facts that it was already the third test, the hourly close of the 11 a.m. candle below the monthly pivot and the confirmation of the break at 12 a.m. on the 5 min chart and at the 3 p.m. hourly candle close (lower close than the range of the breakout candle-blue circle on hourly).

 The blue circle on the 5 min chart at 1 p.m. shows how the monthly pivot started to act as resistance now and the green circle shows a typical 3-wave consolidation pattern before market impulsively moved down. The Euro found some support at  61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing up at 1.2517 (brown line) and from there the Euro retraced up to the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent impulsive wave down at 1.2543.

The consolidations below the weekly and monthly pivot on the hourly chart can be seen as bear flags.

Prior to the impulsive wave down market penetrated the recent lows (blue and red line), which often gives some short term support (see the candles with the long wick which penetrated these levels (12, 12:15, 14;20 p.m.-stop fishing accomplished).

Weekly and Monthly Pivot Point

On the 5 min chart (below) we also see the changing role from support to resistance of the weekly pivot and the August 2010 low (purple line). This price zone provided support in the Asian session (ellipse) before market breached this level (9 a.m.) and retested it at around 10 p.m. (now resistance).

5 min  EUR/ USD Chart analysis

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Fibonacci levels and Bear Flags - best forex trading signals service

Fibonacci levels and Bear Flags ~ best forex trading signals service

Fibonacci extension levels

Flag patterns

The EUR/USD Chart Analysis

shows the importance of the 61.80 % and 100 % Fibonacci extension levels, which market often respects as support/ resistance, at least temporarily. On the hourly Euro Chart we see that market respected the 61.80 % Fibonacci Extension level at 8 a.m..Market retraced up from this Fibonacci Extension level to the downward sloping 20 SMA (purple line) and the 61.80 % Fibonacci retracement level. From this resistance level, which market approached at 1 p.m., the EUR/USD rolled over and continued its downward trend to the 100 % Fibonacci Extension level. The 61.80 % Fibonacci Extension level often provides only temporary support/ resistance. The 100 % Fibonacci Extension support level got further strengthened due to the weekly S1 at 1.2859.

1 hour Fibonacci extension levels

On the 5 min Chart we see that the EUR/USD consolidated at the uprising trend line and the daily S1, formed a bear flag (Continuation pattern) and market finally broke through the support level of the uprising trend line. Market took out the stops and triggered the limit breakout orders below the recent low (left side of the 5 min chart) and the Euro started to retrace back into the Consolidation zone (Market Price Manipulation) of the prior bear flag, which now acts as resistance (Consolidation price zones). Furthermore, the daily S1 changed its role from support to resistance after the confirmed break of this level on the 5 min chart.

5 min EUR/USD Chart Analysis

Another EUR/USD Chart Analysis in regards of Fibonacci Extension levels and Bear flag pattern:

4 hour Fibonacci Extension

Fibonacci and Bear Flag

continued its down trend today with the triggering of the bear flag pattern. The 10 SMA on the 4 hour chart provided resistance to the Euro and the  EURUSD depreciated further. The Euro found support at the daily S1 and 61.80 % Fibonacci extension (1 hour chart) and market turned around after the creation of the hammer candlestick pattern on the 5 min chart. The EUR/USD moved up to the prior consolidation price zone (bear flag - hourly chart-orange arrow), which acted as resistance.

1 hour Bear Flag pattern, Hammer

5 min Hammer pattern

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Stop Clearing and Price Rejection - forex trading signals download

Stop Clearing and Price Rejection ~ forex trading signals download

Price Rejection at Support/ Resistance

Stop Clearing at Key S/R levels

Pivot Points in the Euro

Daily Double Top

EUR/ USD had a relatively quite session. On the daily chart we see that the support level around the monthly pivot at 1.2568, the low of August 2010 at 1.2588 (purple line) and the 20 SMA (purple) held the market so far.

1 hour Pivot Points

The circled areas on the hourly chart (left) show how price bounced from support/ resistance.

On the hourly chart we see that the Euro moved up to the daily pivot at 1.2611 at 7 a.m. GMT but market could not breach the resistance and moved lower from there. The Euro penetrated the monthly pivot and cleared some stops below it and yesterdays low but the Euro closed above this key resistance level on the hourly chart (green circle).

After the clearing of the stops and the rejection of  prices (close above the monthly pivot on the hourly and higher low on the 5 min chart) market moved to the other side of the consolidation (1.2568 - 1.2614) to test it.

The EUR/ USD breached the pivot point and the recent high at 1.2614 (stop clearing) but the key level at 1.2624 (orange line- January low) provided strong resistance and the Euro bounced back.

The false breakouts (stop clearing) seem to be typical in a quite session when everyone is waiting for major news and thus traders are lacking commitment/ low participation.

5 min Forex Chart Education

On the 5 min chart (above) we see how price bounced from support/ resistance (blue circles) and the formation of consolidations/ bull/ bear flags (red circles) as well as some Fibonacci extensions (100 % and 161 %).

The price zones of the consolidations (red circle) provided some temporary support/ resistance as the market moved back into these zones.

At 9 a.m. market formed an inverted Head & Shoulder at the purple line (August low 2010). During the pattern market did not confirm the break of the purple line (no close of the succeeding candles below the range of the 9:30 a.m. breakout candle on the 5 min chart). Market breached the brown neckline and moved up to the H&S price target (100 % of the larger swing in the H&S-(left shoulder to head)-moved to the break of the neckline).

Between 1 and 3 p.m. the Euro breached the monthly pivot but the Euro formed a higher low and closed above the monthly pivot on the hourly chart (rejection of the breakout). From there, the Euro moved up to test the other side of the consolidation range and market found temporary resistance at the weekly pivot/ 161 % fib extension at 3 p.m. and the daily pivot at about 4 p.m.. The chance of a breach of the daily pivot increased due to the bull flag, the rising 10 SMA, the prior test at 7 a.m. (second test now) and particularly the fact that the prior 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. already touched (respected) the daily pivot so that this resistance level got weaker with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle (Breakout Timing setup).

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Stop Runs during News release - forex brokers with trading signals

Stop Runs during News release ~ forex brokers with trading signals

News releases in Forex

Stop Running

Stop run (shakeout) to the upside after daily bull flag got triggered and market took out the recent daily high. The Euro found resistance at the low of June 28 at 1.2407 and the weekly 10 SMA at 1.2409. After taking out the stops above the high of July 27 at 1.2390 the Euro reversed strongly (Stop clearing accomplished...). The Euro currently found some support at the daily S2, the 38.20 % fib extension from the recent hourly swing down (not shown) and the price zone of the consolidation from the 26th of July.

Yesterday, we had a potential H&S (tricky pattern) on the hourly time frame.

Particularly on the 1 min chart we see how the Fibonacci study could help to anticipate support and resistance.

1-hour Euro US Dollar Chart Analysis

5 min Eur/Usd Dollar Chart Analysis

1 min Euro Dollar Chart Analysis

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Price Rejection - free forex trading signals today

Price Rejection ~ free forex trading signals today

Market Price Rejection

4 hour 20 SMA

Daily

Daily 6 p.m.

Understanding price pattern 

Breakout trading

On the daily chart at 6 p.m. GMT we see that EUR/USD found resistance at the daily 10 SMA at about 1.2805 and pulled back from there to find some support at the 20 SMA (4 hour chart-purple line) and yesterdays consolidation price zone (1 hour chart below).


Furthermore, this price level got also supported from the 100 % fib extension from A-B at C at about 1.2733 (1 hour chart below). The price bounced back  strongly from the confluence support level and created a strong bullish candle (long price wick-4 hour chart-left), which closed right at the weekly pivot point at about 1.2768. Initially, after the 4 hour candle closed at 4 p.m. GMT (resistance level-weekly pivot-got touched/respected-Timing) EUR/USD went up for one candle (Breakout candle 2 on 5 min chart -last chart).


However, the Euro came back due to the resistance of the 20 SMA (purple line and prior consolidation zone on the 1 hour chart (4 p.m.-the doji) + 200 SMA on 5 min chart. From 4 p.m. to 5 p.m. GMT EUR/USD consolidated around the weekly pivot point (5 min chart) before price moved up again at 5 p.m. GMT (Breakout candle 3 at 5 min chart) just after the prior 1 hour candle (starting at 4 p.m. GMT-doji) closed and respected the resistance level, particularly the 20 SMA on the hourly chart at about 1.2775. The 5 min chart also shows that market got supported due to the rising 20 SMA (last chart).


Finally, EUR/USD is closing right at the 10 SMA and monthly S2 resistance (respect the resistance zone).

1 hour chart

5 min chart

Fibonacci Extensions

If we focus on the price development on the 5 min chart today from 1 p.m. and 6 p.m. we see that EUR/USD bounced back from the support level in a kind of V-shape pattern at 2.20 p.m. GMT.

In general, if a trend prevails then market often moves strongly in one direction then consolidates before market resumes the trend direction. Typical targets of the continuation are the 61.80 % (weak), 100 % (normal) and 161 % (strong) fib extensions.


The initial target is often the 61.80 % target  where market is likely to react. In a strong trend market could easily ignore the 61.80 % level or only  react  on a shorter time frame and proceed directly to the 100 % fib extension which often provides solid support/ resistance, at least for a while. Very often price consolidates (smaller consolidation pattern than the prior consolidation) (bear/bull flag) at the 61.80 % fib extension before resumption.


However, if price is not at least consolidating at the 61.80 fib extension level and is instead bouncing back strongly into the prior consolidation (V-shape) then the underlying trend is in question (turn around or larger consolidation pattern). The last breakout is a false one/ shake out) to trigger stops and fool breakout trader, particularly at strong support/resistance levels, which only temporarily gets breached/ penetrated without confirmation.

 V-shape turn around

On the 5 min chart, we have a small example of this kind of price rejection. If we focus on the small bear flag on the left of the 5 min chart after market dropped from the prior consolidation at point a then it is observable that the last downward candles only reach the 61.80 % fib extension from a-b at c and that price does not consolidate there but instead turns around and moves back into the consolidation pattern. Furthermore, no succeeding candle closes below the range of the breakout candle 1 (no confirmation).

This kind of price behaviour ( V-shape turn around at the 61.80 % fib extension and/or non confirmation of the breakout candle is often observable before market either turns around or at least is starting a larger consolidation pattern.

We had another example of the V-shape turn around at a 61.80 % fib extension on the 18th of May (recent turn around) at the strong confluence support zone at about 1.2642 due to the 61.80 fib extension from the recent swing down + the weekly S3 (EUR/USD Market Update 18.05.12 -A-). Furthermore, the chance of a turn around of price at the support level got also increased due to the lower downward momentum of the second swing into support compared to the first swing down.

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Butterfly pattern and price targets - barclays forex trading signals

Butterfly pattern and price targets ~ barclays forex trading signals

Butterfly Sell pattern

Weekly and Daily Pivot

The Euro

formed a butterfly sell pattern on the 5 min chart. The turn around at the 127 % butterfly sell target coincided with the 61.80 % fib retracement on the hourly chart and the weekly R1. We also see the importance of pivot points for example of the weekly and daily pivot and daily S1 and weekly R1.

Market initially moved down at 8 a.m. to find support at the weekly Pivot Point. From the weekly Pivot the Euro bounced up strongly, creating a small bull flag at around 8:45 a.m.and later the Butterfly sell pattern. 

The Butterfly pattern is a typical reversal chart pattern so that market typical retraces the preceding move after the failed breakout to the 127 % or 161 % Fibonacci extension level from the preceding Consolidation pattern at 10 a.m.. The Euro retraced back to the typical 161 % Butterfly price target, which also coincided with the 61.80 % Fibonacci retracement level of the recent swing up at around 1 p.m.at 1.29. 

The Euro consolidated above the 1.29 price level with the typical three swing consolidation before breaking temporarily through the 1.29 level (psychological level). Later in the US session the Euro has been in a choppy trading environment with the daily Pivot as the upper border and the 1.29 price level as the lower border.

5 min Butterfly Sell Pattern, Butterfly Price Target

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Perfect Forecast of JP Morgan The Power of Alternative - forex trend trading signals

Perfect Forecast of JP Morgan The Power of Alternative ~ forex trend trading signals

On 8th June, I posted an analysis here titled JP Porgan as caught on elliot wave on how I expected JP Morgan stock price to move in time to come.

I had two scenerios. While I favoured the first, I kept an eye on the second. i wrote about the favoured analysis below.

Prices are tending high in a non-overlapping impulsive trend. The recent rally which I labeled as the third wave of the impulsive move is ending in an expanding diagonal formation.

 

 In expanding diagonal, wave 5 is greater than wave 3 which is greater that wave 1; wave 4 is greater than wave 2 and the connecting trendlines, upper and lower, show that prices should continue the rally to $70 where a minor dip to $65 region  is very likely before a further rally to probably $72.

 

What happened afterward?. Price rallied to $70, dipped to form the 4th wave in a zigzag correction at $65 and now advancing toward $72. We will see price reaction at $72.

 

 

 

There could be a major slump in the price of Jp Morgan soon. We can watch and analyse with the help of elliot wave theory.

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Butterfly price targets - best forex trading signals free

Butterfly price targets ~ best forex trading signals free

Trading the Butterfly pattern

A Butterfly chart pattern was in todays Forex trading session in the EUR/USD on the 5 min chart (last chart).

The Euro found resistance at the 127 % butterfly sell target (5 min chart) and from there the EUR/USD went straight to the 161 % butterfly pattern target. The consolidation price zone of the triangle pattern (hourly chart) and the hourly 200 SMA also gave some support at the 161 % butterfly pattern target at around 1.2940.

On the 4-hour chart we see an Evening Star pattern.

4 hour Evening Star pattern

1 hour triangle breakout

5 min butterfly sell pattern

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Price shakeouts of weak hands - forex.com trading signals

Price shakeouts of weak hands ~ forex.com trading signals

Forex Chart Patterns

4-hour Euro Dollar

1 hour Euro Dollar

5 min Euro Dollar Chart Analysis

Consolidation Patterns

Weak hands getting shaked out in Trading

The Euro moved up to the1.2329 resistance level (purple line-October 2008 low and 20 SMA on the 4-hour chart) and from there market resumed its down trend and the Euro created a new daily low.

On the 5 min chart (below) we see that consolidations very often consists of three swings (red circles). One of them occurred in the Asian session between 2 - 3 a.m. GMT and after termination market moved to the 100 % fib extension. Another one occurred at about 10 a.m. and this consolidation is also the left shoulder of the Head and Shoulder pattern on todays market top, which took place at the 4-hour 20 SMA and the October 2008 low (purple line). The right shoulder is also a three swing consolidation and after termination the Euro penetrated the brown neckline. However, market consolidated below the neckline and slightly penetrated the neckline to the upside again. A reversal (failing of the H&S) or at least a shakeout got more likely due to the length of the consolidation below the neckline (Good trading opportunities at important levels/ pattern termination normally do not give much time for positioning as it is recognized by many traders and thus triggered fast).

The lengthy consolidation followed by the upside break of this consolidation through the neckline led to a kind of shakeout of the weak hands. The Euro found resistance at the 20 SMA on the 5 min chart and the price zone of the prior consolidation (right shoulder) so that the Euro resumed the down trend and triggered the H&S pattern. The 1 a.m. hourly candle triggered the stops below todays (green line) and yesterdays low (blue line) but the candle closed and formed a bull flag (on 5 min chart) at the recent hourly low at 1.2281 (blue line). The bull flag (blue circle) got triggered and market moved to the daily pivot and the 100 % fib extension on the 5 min chart. From there, the Euro resumed its down trend again. The 2 p.m. hourly candle closed at the daily S1 (red circle on hourly, weakening this level) and the following hourly candle starting at 3 p.m. moved below it and closed at Mondays gap opening at 1.2253 (brown line). Another timing setup occurred with the start of the new 4-hour candle at 4 p.m.. The Euro terminated its three swing consolidation pattern on the 5 min chart at 3:45 p.m. (red circle) and market moved lower again after the previous 4-hour candle closed and weaken the gap opening support (brown line). However, the Euro did not confirm the breach of the prior consolidation low at 1.2245 (green circle) and the Euro reversed and the 4 p.m. hourly candle closed at the gap opening (brown line). Market is currently consolidating around this level.

The pin bar at 8:25 a.m. after the penetration of the 1.2288 level (pink line-low of June 1st) led to a non-confirmation of the break and the Euro moved up again after the bull flag just above the pink line. A hint for the continuation was the close of the 9:20 candle at/above the daily pivot with the confirmation of the following 5 min candle.

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False True Breakout - free forex trading signals update hourly

False True Breakout ~ free forex trading signals update hourly

True or False Breakout Trendline Break

Breakout Candle Confirmation

Weekly Support/ Resistance Forex Trading

Trendline Analysis

On the weekly chart we see that we breached the weekly low at 1.2588 in 2010 and the January low 2012. The recent trendline (green) could not hold the market after the trendline got respected last week. 

In general a trendline is stronger when the test of  it is not so early after the trendine got created. In this case the trend line came into existence due to the January low 2012 combined with the low in 2010 and the trendline got already tested in May 2012 (much to early to give strong support). EUR/USD is now clearing the stops below these lows.

Daily Head and Shoulder target

On the daily chart we see that market reached the classical Head and Shoulders target (see also EUR/USD Market Analysis (15.05.12))  at about 1.2554. Furthermore this price zone is likely to provide some support due to the 161% fib extension from C-D at E, the 61.80 % fib extension from E-F at G. The clearing of the stops under the recent lows is a typical target of price movement and can give some support - manipulative stop clearing accomplished.

1 hour Trendline Break Signal

Breakout Trading 

The Difference between true and false breakouts

We had a similar consolidation (blue circle) like yesterday (EUR/USD Market Recap 22.05.12)(green circle). Both 3 wave consolidations had a lower point B and higher point C, which often precedes a strong trend continuation. Point B slightly breached the recent lows (blue and pink line) and the weekly S1, monthly S3 but the hourly candle closed at the monthly S3.

So the first breakout lower failed (5 min chart) and market moved up to point C slightly above point A. This false breakout caught many breakout traders to early who had there limit orders below the low of yesterdays strong daily downward candle.

However, market did not confirm the first breakout and turned around at the recent lows + the weekly S1, monthly S3 after the slight breach at 9 a.m. GMT and closed above the recent high (point A) to trigger some of their stops (point C). At point C market finished the 3 wave consolidation at the resistance of the 20 SMA (purple line) and went down for the second true breakout.

In the Asian session at 1 a.m. GMT the monthly S3 got already touched (weaken), which increased the chance of at least a breach of this level.

The 2 p.m. hourly candle respected (closed at) the monthly S3 just before the true breakout occurred (Breakout Timing). The  decreasing 10 and 20 SMA (red and purple line) also provided resistance and pushed price down.
 

5 min True/ False Breakout Confirmation

On the 5 min chart we see that the breakout candle 1 at 9.10 a.m. occurred just after the prior 5 min candle touched the low from 18th of May (blue line). However, this breakout (blue line) did not get confirmed and market also did not accomplish to close below Januarys low (pink line) so that market reversed and triggered some stops of the breakout traders by creating the new high.

However, the false breakout weaken  the the confluence support level of the monthly S3, weekly S1, daily S1 and the lows of the 18th of May and January due to the breaching so that the second breakout had a high chance to break this support level.

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