Market Gap Trading - free forex day trading signals

Market Gap Trading ~ free forex day trading signals

Market Gaps Analyzed

Closing the Market Gap

1 hour Gap Trading 

The Euro gaped up to 1.2748 and from there EUR/USD started to move down and completely retraced/ closed the market gap and the market even fell much further.

The 2 a.m hourly candle found support at the 10 SMA (red line) and the Euro started to retrace up to 1.2725 supported by the rising hourly 10 SMA. After the end of the upward retracement the Euro resumed its downtrend and closed todays gap.

The 8 a.m. hourly candle respected (touched) the hourly 20 SMA (purple line) after the Euro consolidated between the 20 SMA and 200 SMA on the 5 min chart, and the Euro initially broke through the 20 SMA with the beginning of the new hourly candle at 9 a.m. (London open- green circle on 5 min chart).

The Euro found some temporary support at the pink line (low of January) and formed an abc-retracement up to the monthly pivot point. From there, the Euro bounced back and penetrated the pink line again but market could not confirm the breakout on the 5 min chart.

5 min  Daily Gap Trading Setups

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Pivot Points as Support and Resistance - forex traders elite signals

Pivot Points as Support and Resistance ~ forex traders elite signals

Flag pattern and Pivot Points

Bear and Bull Flags

1 hour Daily Pivot Point S/R

In the Asian session, the Euro found support at the weekly S1 and market formed a kind of doji/ pin bar (reversal candle) on the hourly chart (Yesterdays low-blue line). From there, the Euro moved up to the 20 SMA (hourly) where market found some resistance (5 a.m.) (1) before market moved above the 20 SMA up to the daily pivot point at 1.2522 (2).

Daily Pivot Point Trading

The Euro reversed at the daily pivot point and market targeted the recent hourly low at 7 a.m. to clear some stops (3) (no breakout confirmation of the hourly low on 5 min chart) before the euro moved up again and penetrated the daily pivot point (4). However, we see on the 5 min chart (B) that market never confirmed a break of the daily pivot point (no close above the breakout candle).

Market rolled over at the daily pivot point and targeted yesterdays daily low. Yesterdays bearish daily candle made a retest of this low very likely (bearish sentiment) and many stop and limit orders are expected to be below yesterdays low. Market cleared these orders and bounced back and closed again at/ above the weekly S1 on the hourly chart (first breakout is often a false breakout).

On the 5 min chart (below) we also see that the breach of the weekly S1 and yesterdays low did not get confirmed. The 5 min candle at 3:05 p.m. closed at the weekly S1 (respected it) and the following breakout candle penetrated this support level, however, there was no succeeding candle which closed below the range of the breakout candle. Moreover, market bounced back at the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E.

Todays price action in the European session might be seen as a Head and Shoulders pattern (ABC) with the green line as its neckline (5 min chart). Market formed a nice 3 wave consolidation pattern at the neckline (visible on the 1 min chart-bear flag) just prior to the breakout (D)

5 min Flag patterns

On the 5 min chart we also see that the Euro bounced back after the unconfirmed breach of the weekly S1 and yesterdays low (blue line) (F), moved up to the 20 SMA (3:45 p.m.) where market consolidated before the Euro went up further and formed a bullish consolidation (bull flag). The green neckline seemed to provide some resistance. The bull flag got triggered, supported by the rising 20 SMA on the 5 min chart and market moved up again.

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3 Ways to Identify Support and Resistance 5 Chart Examples - forex trading customer reviews

3 Ways to Identify Support and Resistance 5 Chart Examples ~ forex trading customer reviews

3 Ways to Identify Support and Resistance - 5 Chart Examples

By Elliott Wave International

Todays lesson considers three ways to identify price support and resistance in the markets you trade.

1. Previous highs and lows
2. Trendline support
3. Fibonacci Ratios

These examples are adapted from Jeffrey Kennedys Traders Classroom service.

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1) Uptrends terminate at resistance while downtrends terminate at support. Previous highs and lows often act as resistance and support.

In ALCOA Inc (AA), the September 2012 selloff found support near the previous July 2012 low.

The February 2013 peak occurred following a test of resistance at the January peak at $9.33.

2) Trendlines offer resistance and support for prices.

The 2008 advance in Gold found support numerous times near the trendline that connected the lows of the move, as you can see below:

Conversely, the trendline connecting the highs of Wheats 2012-2013 decline provided resistance for countertrend price action.

3) Fibonacci ratios also identify resistance and support. As Elliotticians, we often look at retracements, the most common being .382, .500 and .618. In Akamai Tech, Fibonacci support ignited the July and November 2012 rallies:

In the same chart you can also notice how Fibonacci resistance in AKAM halted the July 2012 and February advances.

For more free trading lessons on trendlines, download Jeffrey Kennedys free 14-page eBook, Trading the Line -- 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading Decisions. It explains the power of simple trendlines, how to draw them, and how to determine when the trend has actually changed. Download your free eBook.

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Key Support Resistance Levels - free forex trading signals daily

Key Support Resistance Levels ~ free forex trading signals daily

Important Support/ Resistance

Key S/R Levels in the EUR/USD

Key Support/ Resistance Levels 

4-hour Euro Chart

Daily 20 SMA and Pivots

The Euro Dollar moved up to the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C). Today, market bounced back from this resistance level. The monthly pivot and daily 20 SMA (purple line) currently act as support. The low of January at 1.2624 (orange line) and the low of August 2010 at 1.2588 (purple line) are key Support and Resistance levels.

On the 4-hour chart (left) we see that the Euro respected the orange line and the 4-hour 10-SMA (red line). However, after the close of the bearish 4-hour candle at 12 a.m. (red circle-left) (Timing setup) the Euro fell below the orange line/ 10 SMA.

On the 1 hour chart (below) we see that the 12 a.m. hourly candle (A) respected the daily pivot at 1.2598. The 1 p.m. candle penetrated the pivot point and respected the weekly pivot at 1.2586 and the purple line (August 2010 low) but closed above the daily pivot on the hourly chart. However, the 3 p.m. hourly candle resumed the down trend and penetrated the already touched/ respected support levels (second test). The Euro found support at the monthly pivot point key level.

1 hour EurUsd key S/R levels

The price zone of the circled consolidation (blue) from Friday also provided some temporary support.

 On the 5 min chart (below) we had a kind of inverted Head and Shoulder in the Asian session with the green neckline and a prolonged left shoulder at the key support level of the low of January (orange line). At 11 a.m. we see a typical 3-wave consolidation at the support level (orange line) before the Euro resumed its downtrend. The duration of the consolidation is the same like the duration of the prior 5-min down swing. Most of the circled candles on the 5 min chart show how price bounced at key support/ resistance levels

5 min Euro US Dollar 

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Second Test of Support - how to generate forex trading signals

Second Test of Support ~ how to generate forex trading signals

Consolidation at Support

Trading Support and Resistance

5 min EUR/USD Technical Chart Analysis

The support zone at 1.2825 (analysed in EUR/USD Market Analysis (14.05.12)) which held the market in the yesterday and in the Asian session (got tested) could not hold a second test and got broken recently.

Inverted Head and Shoulder

On the 5 min chart above, we might interpret the price action in the Asian session today as an inverted Head & Shoulder. The neckline got broken and the market went up to 1.2869.

The circled consolidation on the right of the chart took place at the support level created by the green trend line, the inverted H&S neckline, the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing up and the 100 % fib extension from wave A-B moved to point C at about 1.2840. The market consolidated there (typical three swings) and in the following market could not hold support so that price broke down strongly (probably due to news...).

Market currently seems to find some support at the weekly trend line from the June 2010 low and January 2012 low  EUR/USD Market Analysis (15.05.12).

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Stop Clearing and Price Rejection - forex trading signals download

Stop Clearing and Price Rejection ~ forex trading signals download

Price Rejection at Support/ Resistance

Stop Clearing at Key S/R levels

Pivot Points in the Euro

Daily Double Top

EUR/ USD had a relatively quite session. On the daily chart we see that the support level around the monthly pivot at 1.2568, the low of August 2010 at 1.2588 (purple line) and the 20 SMA (purple) held the market so far.

1 hour Pivot Points

The circled areas on the hourly chart (left) show how price bounced from support/ resistance.

On the hourly chart we see that the Euro moved up to the daily pivot at 1.2611 at 7 a.m. GMT but market could not breach the resistance and moved lower from there. The Euro penetrated the monthly pivot and cleared some stops below it and yesterdays low but the Euro closed above this key resistance level on the hourly chart (green circle).

After the clearing of the stops and the rejection of  prices (close above the monthly pivot on the hourly and higher low on the 5 min chart) market moved to the other side of the consolidation (1.2568 - 1.2614) to test it.

The EUR/ USD breached the pivot point and the recent high at 1.2614 (stop clearing) but the key level at 1.2624 (orange line- January low) provided strong resistance and the Euro bounced back.

The false breakouts (stop clearing) seem to be typical in a quite session when everyone is waiting for major news and thus traders are lacking commitment/ low participation.

5 min Forex Chart Education

On the 5 min chart (above) we see how price bounced from support/ resistance (blue circles) and the formation of consolidations/ bull/ bear flags (red circles) as well as some Fibonacci extensions (100 % and 161 %).

The price zones of the consolidations (red circle) provided some temporary support/ resistance as the market moved back into these zones.

At 9 a.m. market formed an inverted Head & Shoulder at the purple line (August low 2010). During the pattern market did not confirm the break of the purple line (no close of the succeeding candles below the range of the 9:30 a.m. breakout candle on the 5 min chart). Market breached the brown neckline and moved up to the H&S price target (100 % of the larger swing in the H&S-(left shoulder to head)-moved to the break of the neckline).

Between 1 and 3 p.m. the Euro breached the monthly pivot but the Euro formed a higher low and closed above the monthly pivot on the hourly chart (rejection of the breakout). From there, the Euro moved up to test the other side of the consolidation range and market found temporary resistance at the weekly pivot/ 161 % fib extension at 3 p.m. and the daily pivot at about 4 p.m.. The chance of a breach of the daily pivot increased due to the bull flag, the rising 10 SMA, the prior test at 7 a.m. (second test now) and particularly the fact that the prior 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. already touched (respected) the daily pivot so that this resistance level got weaker with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle (Breakout Timing setup).

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Neckline of the Head and Shoulders - forex trading signals software downloads

Neckline of the Head and Shoulders ~ forex trading signals software downloads

Hourly Pin Bar

Test of the Neckline

Pin bar as Reversal pattern

The Euro found support at 1.2445 and formed a pin bar on the hourly chart. The bullish pin bar is a reversal pattern and it shows a strong demand at its level of creation. Hence, market was supported at this level and the strong rally back indicated a bullish rejection of the penetrated price level. The pin bar (bullish sign) led to some follow through and the Euro moved up to the 1.2500 zone

However, on the hourly and 5 min chart we see a kind of Head and Shoulders pattern. The brown neckline of the Head and Shoulders and the supporting upward sloping green trend line got broken at 1:15 p.m. GMT (confirmed on the 5 min chart).

1 hour Pin bar

5 min Head and Shoulders neckline test

As often, market retested the recent support which now became resistance (neckline, green line) at 1:35 p.m. (small red circle). However, the neckline/ green trend line held the market, which also coincided with the 5 min 20 SMA and 61.80 % Fibonacci (fib) retracement of the recent swing down.

The Euro initially moved down after the retest but market did a second retest of the brown neckline (green circle) after market got rejected at the 61.80 % fib extension and weekly S1 at 2:15 p.m. (pink circle).

If market strongly bounce back from the 61.80 % fib extension (no initial penetration or consolidation at this level then a temporary rejection of the current trend on this time frame is likely (either a reversal or a larger consolidation).

However, the Euro could not move above the neckline (green circle) and market resumed its downtrend and finally the Euro reached the Head and Shoulders target (100 % fib extension from the largest swing of the Head and Shoulders moved to the breach of the neckline) (blue cirlce).

Head and Shoulders target also coincided with the March 2009 support level and the 100 % Fibonacci  (fib) extension from the recent swing down. The Euro moved up from there but market penetrated this support level with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle at 4 p.m. after the prior hourly and 4-hour candle already touched (respected) the monthly low of March 2009. However, market only temporary breached this level (brown circle) and the Euro found support at the fib confluence level at about 1.2447 and the daily S1.

The Euro hold at the two 100 % fib extension and the 61.80 % fib extension (rejection) and market closed again above/ at the March 2009 support level (rejection). The Euro resumed its uptrend after the formation of two bull flags (first one at the 5 min 20-SMA resistance).

The price zone of the consolidation at 1 a.m. and at 6 a.m. (on the left of the 5 min chart) gave some support/resistance to the market as the Euro reached this price zone again.

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Price Rejection - free forex trading signals today

Price Rejection ~ free forex trading signals today

Market Price Rejection

4 hour 20 SMA

Daily

Daily 6 p.m.

Understanding price pattern 

Breakout trading

On the daily chart at 6 p.m. GMT we see that EUR/USD found resistance at the daily 10 SMA at about 1.2805 and pulled back from there to find some support at the 20 SMA (4 hour chart-purple line) and yesterdays consolidation price zone (1 hour chart below).


Furthermore, this price level got also supported from the 100 % fib extension from A-B at C at about 1.2733 (1 hour chart below). The price bounced back  strongly from the confluence support level and created a strong bullish candle (long price wick-4 hour chart-left), which closed right at the weekly pivot point at about 1.2768. Initially, after the 4 hour candle closed at 4 p.m. GMT (resistance level-weekly pivot-got touched/respected-Timing) EUR/USD went up for one candle (Breakout candle 2 on 5 min chart -last chart).


However, the Euro came back due to the resistance of the 20 SMA (purple line and prior consolidation zone on the 1 hour chart (4 p.m.-the doji) + 200 SMA on 5 min chart. From 4 p.m. to 5 p.m. GMT EUR/USD consolidated around the weekly pivot point (5 min chart) before price moved up again at 5 p.m. GMT (Breakout candle 3 at 5 min chart) just after the prior 1 hour candle (starting at 4 p.m. GMT-doji) closed and respected the resistance level, particularly the 20 SMA on the hourly chart at about 1.2775. The 5 min chart also shows that market got supported due to the rising 20 SMA (last chart).


Finally, EUR/USD is closing right at the 10 SMA and monthly S2 resistance (respect the resistance zone).

1 hour chart

5 min chart

Fibonacci Extensions

If we focus on the price development on the 5 min chart today from 1 p.m. and 6 p.m. we see that EUR/USD bounced back from the support level in a kind of V-shape pattern at 2.20 p.m. GMT.

In general, if a trend prevails then market often moves strongly in one direction then consolidates before market resumes the trend direction. Typical targets of the continuation are the 61.80 % (weak), 100 % (normal) and 161 % (strong) fib extensions.


The initial target is often the 61.80 % target  where market is likely to react. In a strong trend market could easily ignore the 61.80 % level or only  react  on a shorter time frame and proceed directly to the 100 % fib extension which often provides solid support/ resistance, at least for a while. Very often price consolidates (smaller consolidation pattern than the prior consolidation) (bear/bull flag) at the 61.80 % fib extension before resumption.


However, if price is not at least consolidating at the 61.80 fib extension level and is instead bouncing back strongly into the prior consolidation (V-shape) then the underlying trend is in question (turn around or larger consolidation pattern). The last breakout is a false one/ shake out) to trigger stops and fool breakout trader, particularly at strong support/resistance levels, which only temporarily gets breached/ penetrated without confirmation.

 V-shape turn around

On the 5 min chart, we have a small example of this kind of price rejection. If we focus on the small bear flag on the left of the 5 min chart after market dropped from the prior consolidation at point a then it is observable that the last downward candles only reach the 61.80 % fib extension from a-b at c and that price does not consolidate there but instead turns around and moves back into the consolidation pattern. Furthermore, no succeeding candle closes below the range of the breakout candle 1 (no confirmation).

This kind of price behaviour ( V-shape turn around at the 61.80 % fib extension and/or non confirmation of the breakout candle is often observable before market either turns around or at least is starting a larger consolidation pattern.

We had another example of the V-shape turn around at a 61.80 % fib extension on the 18th of May (recent turn around) at the strong confluence support zone at about 1.2642 due to the 61.80 fib extension from the recent swing down + the weekly S3 (EUR/USD Market Update 18.05.12 -A-). Furthermore, the chance of a turn around of price at the support level got also increased due to the lower downward momentum of the second swing into support compared to the first swing down.

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Fib extensions and retracements - forex trading entry signals

Fib extensions and retracements ~ forex trading entry signals

Fibonacci Trading

 Fibonacci retracement and extension levels

1 hour  Fibonacci Trading

Today in the beginning of the European session the Euro moved up to the 100 % fib extension (1-2 at 3) and daily R1 at 1.2548. The Euro struggled with this resistance level although EUR/USD moved up close to the weekly pivot point (1:35 p.m. GMT, 4). However, EUR/USD failed to close above this resistance zone (1.2548) on the hourly basis so that market moved lower (1:35 p.m.) to find some support at the rising hourly 10 SMA (red line-5). From there, the Euro strongly moved up above the prior resistance zone at 1.2548 (second test) and market was able to close above the weekly pivot on the hourly (second test) and 4-hourly basis (candle close at 4 p.m.). The hourly candle (3-4 p.m.) approximately closed at (respected) the 61.80 % retracement and daily R2, which in the following got broken with the beginning of the next hourly candle (4-5 p.m.) and the Euro moved up to the 100 % fib extension at 1.2603 (6).

5 min Butterfly sell pattern

Fibonacci Retracement at 61.80 %

On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro very often reacted at the 61.80 % fib retracement marked with the 0 on the 5 min chart and also at the 100 % fib extension market with the 1 on the 5 min chart (important Fibonacci levels). At the beginning of the London trading session at 9 a.m. the Euro made a abc retracement before market moved up to the 100 % fib extension at 1.2554. In the following market formed a typical 3-wave consolidation pattern/ butterfly (circled). After the termination of the consolidation the Euro reached the typical butterfly target (127 % fib extension-1-0 at 0) before EUR/USD reversed and took out the low of the prior consolidation (1.2526), which is also typical for a butterfly pattern. The Euro found support at the 10 SMA on the hourly Chart (2-3 p.m.) and formed a kind of ending diagonal on the 5 min chart (ED). In the following, the Euro strongly moved up to the 100 % fib extension, where market consolidated.

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Resistance becomes Support - how do forex trading signals work

Resistance becomes Support ~ how do forex trading signals work

Resistance/ Support levels

Changing Role of Resistance and Suppor

1 hour Trading Signals  | Changing role Resistance to support

Resistance becomes support

On the 1 hour chart we see the changing role of the key level at 1.2588 (August 2010 low-orange line). Yesterday in the US session the Euro closed below this level at 3 p.m. GMT and in the following the Euro found resistance at the orange line. However, the Euro got supported by the hourly 200 SMA (black line) and the EUR/USD move above the orange line again in todays overnight session. Now, the orange line acted at support  (prior resistance becomes support) and the Euro did not close below this level on an hourly basis.

EUR/USD penetrated the orange line between 9 a.m. -10 a.m. but market bounced back again from the 200 SMA (yesterdays consolidation also provided some support at this price level) and closed finally above the key support on the hourly chart. From there, the Euro moved up to the next key level at 1.2624 (pink line-January low).

The Euro could not overcome this level for a while, however, EUR/USD also did not significantly bounced back from this resistance. The resistance got further strengthened due to the daily pivot at 1.2629. Market formed a bull flag on the hourly chart and the Euro broke through resistance (pink line) with the beginning of the 2 p.m. hourly candle after market repeatedly slightly penetrated this level during the three hour consolidation (bull flag-eroded resistance over time). Moreover, the bull flag terminated exactly at the 100 % time projection of the prior upswing (A-B at B, 5 min chart below).

After the break of the strong resistance (pink line) market gained strong bullish momentum. The 2 p.m. hourly candle closed above the weekly pivot, the 3 p.m. hourly candle above the monthly pivot and the 4-hour candle closing at 4 p.m. closed (respected) at the 61.80 % fib retracement and market breached the 61.80 % fib retracement initially after the 4 hour candle closed (red circle on hourly chart).

5 min Day Trading Strategies

On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro initially moved to the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C) after the breach of the pink line. The Euro found some resistance there and bounced back to find support at the rising 10 SMA (red line) on the 5 min chart and the Euro got repeatedly pushed up after touching the rising 10 SMA (strong bullish momentum).

The 5 min chart also highlights the changing role (support/resistance) of the orange line. EUR/USD repeatedly reacted at this level (1.2588).

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Watch For Double Top Neckline on Usdcad - standard bank forex trading reviews

Watch For Double Top Neckline on Usdcad ~ standard bank forex trading reviews

In the last post on usdcad where I forecast a bearish move. Read the analysis here.   I put a sell order and since I have been raking about 180pips risking just 85pips.

 

I closed about 60% of my trade and will allow the rest to run as i watch price action along the way. I might also add to my position if I see a good bearish continuation wave set up.

 

Presently market is moving well and more bearish move is expected especially if the srong intra day support indicated below is bridged.

 

 

I also spotted a reversal double top formation which if completed could add more reasons to why I chose to sell Usdcad

 

Watch out as price play the game and we follow

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Market News Trading - dux forex trading signals

Market News Trading ~ dux forex trading signals

FOMC News Release

News Trading in Forex

1 hour Market News Release FOMC

The daily EUR USD trading high of  the 11th of June at 1.2669 is another key level (blue line). Today, the Euro found some support at this key level in the Asian and beginning of the European session (hourly chart above). The Euro USD traded in a tight range prior to the FOMC market news release.

On the 5 min chart (below) we see that market formed a kind of Head & Shoulders pattern (ABCDE). The break of the brown neckline got confirmed with the news release at 5:30 p.m. GMT.

Just prior to the news release at 5:25 p.m. the Euro Dollar bounced back from the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E and market closed in the trading range of the preceding 5 min candle.

 After the news release the Euro (5 min candle-5:30) initially moved down to the Head & Shoulders target at around 1.2665 (B-D at F - blue circle, F= neckline break), also 161% fib extension C-D at E. From there market bounced back before the Euro resumed its downtrend to the weekly pivot point where the Euro found strong support and moved up again.

The Eur USD found some resistance at the brown neckline (touched-respected it, red circle) before market finally broke the neckline to the upside with the beginning of the new hourly candle at 6 p.m.. The chance of a temporary continuation of the uptrend and a breach of the high of the 5 p.m. hourly candle got increased due to the 5 p.m. hourly rejection candle (long tail) and the hourly close at the neckline. The 6 p.m. hourly candle breached yesterdays trading high.

Volatile Trading Environment

The volatile market after the news release led to a clearing of the stops below and above todays "pre-new release" trading session, which is not untypical for a news release (stop fishing targets).

5 min FOMC news trading

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Support Resistance Confluence - how to read forex trading signals

Support Resistance Confluence ~ how to read forex trading signals

Consolidation pattern, Fibonacci and SMA

S/R Confluence levels/ Zones

Support/ Resistance Confluence zones

5 min Support/ Resistance Confluence zones

1 min S/R Confluence levels

In the US trading session we had a strong Confluence resistance zone on the 5 min EUR/USD chart at about 1.2965 due to 61.80 % fib retracement of prior swing down, 61.80 % fib extension, 200 MA as well as the prior price zone of the consolidation pattern from the day before.

The Understanding of Consolidation pattern is important as these price zones often act as support/ resistance when market approaches these price levels again for the first time.


A further resistance level was the 20 MA on the 1h chart (not shown).

On the 1 min chart we got further confirmation due to the ending diagonal pattern of wave C (up move lost strength as it approached the resistance area + 61.80 % fib extension.)

In general the first step is to find strong Confluence resistance/ support zones and the second to observe price behaviour at these S/R Confluence levels for confirmation.

Fibonacci Confluenc S/R zones

5 min Support Resistance S/R Confluence Analysis

At the open of the US trading session, market bounced from the 1.2920 S/R Confluence support level due to the 61.80 % fib retracement + 100 % fib extension and prior consolidation at the same confluence level.

Furthermore, the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing up didnt  break substantially because there was no lower close of the succeeding candles below the range of the red breakout candle (no confirmation).

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Chart Pattern Analysis Forex Manipulation - forex auto trading signals

Chart Pattern Analysis Forex Manipulation ~ forex auto trading signals

Trading the Forex Market Price Manipulation

Index:


Forex Price Rigging and Manipulating Series

• Overview of the Forex Price Manipulation:
• Is Forex too big to rig?
• Price Rigging: Forex Market Manipulation analyzed!
• Trading Strategy: How to trade with the FX Price Manipulation

Technical Chart Analysis and Trading Strategies

• Support and Resistance levels, Consolidation patterns
• Fibonacci Analysis
• Breakout Trading Strategies
• Important Chart Patterns -  Price Rejection, Fibonacci Extension, Continuation Chart Patterns
• Do Popular Chart Patterns work? - Price Manipulation
• High Probability Trading Setup Guide
• Candlestick Chart Patterns

The Chart Analysis Legend includes the mainly used Chart Reading Patterns, Methods and Tools

My current shorter term trading strategy

Trading strategies and opinions have evolved and partly changed over time and will do so in future.

My current shorter term trading strategy is to read the intention of the Market Manipulators and to focus on their manipulative stop runs and faked mainstream trading signals at striking mainstream price levels like Highs/ Lows, Round Numbers and Pivot Points in the Forex Majors like EUR/USD, GBP/USD.. EUR/GBP as well as in other markets like S&P 500 (SPY), Dow Jones Industrial, DAX...

I currently do not use Fibonacci analysis, trend lines, SMAs or any popular chart patterns. Often these mainstream trading signals are faked signals.

However, for the longer term, it is also very important to analysis the fundamentals of the currencies. I personally like the investment bank reports on http://www.efxnews.com,/ the analysis on zerohedge.com and the fx pulse reports and gic weekly from Morgan Stanley. 

Manipulation of Popular Chart Levels

The main message of this website is just below:

Popular Chart Levels are often tacitcally misused for faked Trading Signals and Stop Runs by Manipulators in the short run before the fundamentals regain and the major trends resume.

Some Popular Trading Levels:

•  Important Highs/ Lows
•  Round Numbers
•  Pivot Points

Market price often comes back to popular chart levels like Round Numbers / Pivot Points and frequently penetrates them to trigger mainstream trading signals and to run for stops. Particularly, market Highs and Lows are important Manipulation points, where false price breakouts (false first breakout) occur to clear stop loss orders and to trigger breakout limit orders before market reverses back. Be careful with these mainstream trading strategies. Moreover watch out for pure stop runs at these chart levels, which can lead to a strong market turn around. In general, the first price breakout at important chart levels is often a false one.

Often a minor false price breakout or only a price touch of Round Numbers and Pivot Points comes with the first test of these chart levels to trigger close-by breakout orders and stop orders. The retracement to catch some stops of the breakout traders often gives the faked impression that the popular chart level holds as Support/ Resistance, thus encouraging mainstream traders to position accordingly. However, market often goes for a second test of the popular chart levels to clear the stop orders above/ below important chart levels before either retracing back or breaking through the price level targeting the next important mainstream level (stop order and limit order zone).

More in detail, if market price only touches (not really penetrating) the important chart level like Round Numbers and Pivot Points and retraces back then a second test of this market level is likely to catch the stop loss and breakout orders at this support / resistance levels of the traders who already had positioned themselves plus the new traders who interpreted the prior hold of the support/ resistance area as a reason to enter the market.
However, if market price already had penetrated the important support / resistance level to catch most of the stop loss orders and breakout orders before retracing back (failed first breakout) then the chances of a second test of the important chart level would diminish as the intention of the market manipulators to catch the stop loss orders and breakout orders already got accomplished.

Moreover, a clean break through a striking trading level without an immediate price retest is seldom and if so then the chance of a retest in near future is likely to catch stop orders of the breakout traders and to minimize the chance of an easy trade with a small stop lose at important price levels. Furthermore, the reiterating stop triggering process at striking chart levels would be in favour of a clean breakout to happen more often in the absence of any market price manipulation.

In general, market price goes there where the stop loss and breakout orders are anticipated.


Read more:  Overview of the Forex Price Manipulation




Below and in the left sidebar:  EUR/USD analysis from the past

Forex Market Manipulation Analysis

Daily Chart Analysis of the EUR/USD - Stop Hunting

The two orange arrows on the top of the 5 min EURUSD chart below (last chart) show examples for the Stop Hunting- and Market Price Rigging process and it further illustrates the importance of breakout trading strategies. The recurring manipulative Stop hunting strategy in Forex is used by the FX Manipulators to fool breakout traders with the typical failed first breakout. The Market Price Rigging Manipulation via Stop Runs allows the Forex Manipulators to catch the stops of the breakout traders and thus this price rigging strategy most often prevents the typical breakout trader to successfully participate in the true breakout.

Most often at striking price levels, like - highs/ lows/ round numbers/ mainstream Support and Resistance levels -, the market price manipulators enforce the failed first breakout - stop hunting. The Stops of the breakout traders get cleared, who entered the market after their limit orders got triggered through the penetration of the striking level.

Furthermore, many stop loss orders of other traders got also cleared through the slight penetration of the striking chart level. After the price rigging strategy got accomplished and most stops of the breakout traders are already taken out of the market then either the true breakout occurs to catch and clear farther positioned stop loss orders of other traders at the striking level or market reverses to target the opposite striking chart level where many stop loss orders of the fooled breakout traders are located and new breakout traders will try to catch the trend again.

Read More in the Price Rigging and Manipulation Series

The highlighted Doji candles on the 5 min and on the 1 hour chart could have been used as trading triggers. There are also many continuation chart patterns on the 5 min chart (green circles) and an inverted Head and Shoulders chart pattern on the 4 hour/ 1 hour chart.

4 hour EUR/USD Chart Analysis/ Patterns

1 hour Inverse -Inverted- Head and Shoulders pattern, neckline, Doji

5 min Doji candle, Continuation patterns,Pivots

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Changing role of Support and Resistance - end of day forex trading signals

Changing role of Support and Resistance ~ end of day forex trading signals

Important levels and Patterns for Trading

Key Support/ Resistance

On the 4 hour and 1 hour chart we see that the Euro very often closed at (traded/ consolidated around) the low of January 2012 at 1.2624 key level, pink line), which coincides with the daily high of the 7th of June and the gap opening on Monday. Particularly on the 4 hour chart we see that every candle today closed at this important chart level.

4 hour Changing role from resistance to support

1 hour Daily Pivot Point S/R

Head and Shoulders neckline

On the hourly chart we see that the Euro respected the 61.80 % fib extension at 5 a.m. (recent high) and price moved lower from there. On the 1 hour and 5 min chart (below) we see a nice Head and Shoulders pattern. At 11:15 a.m. the Euro breached the neckline (brown line) (A) but market could not confirm this breakout (first test).

The second break of the neckline occurred at 12:45 p.m. and market moved to the 100 % fib extension (B). EUR/USD breached the daily pivot point - key level-, however, the pivot point, the 4-hour 10 SMA and trend line (4-hour chart) supported the market. The Euro managed to close above the neckline on the hourly chart at 2 p.m. after a choppy price action between the neckline and the weekly pivot.

On the 5 min chart (below) we again see the importance of the pink line and its changing role from resistance to support vice versa -key Support/ resistance chart level. The Euro formed a bull flag on the 5 min chart and in the following closed above the pink line after market already regained the neckline with the hourly close at 2 p.m.. The Euro bounced back from the pink line at 5:25 p.m. (now support) and cleared the stops above the recent high (C). However, market could not close above the recent high on the 5 min chart at the first breakout (only stop fishing) and the Euro fell back again.

5 min Important Tradind Chart levels and Patterns

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Changing Role of Support to Resistance - free accurate forex trading signals

Changing Role of Support to Resistance ~ free accurate forex trading signals

Support and Resistance Trading

The Euro USD very often respected the different daily and weekly Pivot Points as support and resistance on the 5 min Intraday Chart. The daily Pivot Point held the sharp intraday downtrend after the Nonfarm payroll release today and the Euro USD reversed sharply up for new highs in the trading session. 61.80 % and 100 % Fibonacci extension levels also helped to determine intraday support and resistance zones.

The Euro moved only shortly into the 1.37 vicinity before retracing back. The daily R1, daily R2 and the weekly R2 beautifully show the changing role from resistance to support. The daily R1 was resistance at 7 a.m. GMT and after resistance got broken the resistance became support between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m.. Similarly, the daily R2 and the weekly R2 acted as resistance before the role changed depending on the vicinity of price action.  The chart formation at around 10 a.m. GMT might be seen as a small Head and Shoulder pattern at the daily R2 resistance.

5 min Changing role resistance to support

The below EUR/USD Chart shows how the monthly R2 Pivot point changed its role from resistance  (at 11 a.m.) to support after market broke this resistance level and confirmed the breakout at about 3 p.m..

5 min Resistance becomes support

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Daily EURO Support Resistance levels - most accurate forex trading signals

Daily EURO Support Resistance levels ~ most accurate forex trading signals

Support and Resistance

EUR USD Technical Chart Analysis

The EURO started to move upward today, after yesterdays news shakeout at 7 p.m. GMT, which cleared the stops above the low of Sept. 10th at 1.2755 and then reversed to clear the stops below 1.2724. 

Todays upward momentum might be the following of the daily hammer candlestick pattern on Tuesday.


The Euro moved higher with the triggering of continuation patterns (green circles/ellipses) and Breakout timing setups (red circles/ellipses) until market reached strong resistance at the 1.28 level. This resistance zone consists of the low of October 1st, the monthly S1, the 61.80 % Fibonacci retracement on the 4 hour chart and the 38,20 % Fibonacci retracement on the daily chart. Market reversed at the 1.28 level and started to move lower.

On the 5 min chart we see how market broke through the downward sloping green trend line at 2:15 p.m. (Breakout trading-prior candle closed at trend line) so that the consolidation/ triangle got terminated.  Market started to consolidate in a  shape of a continuation pattern after the breakout of the triangle and price retested the daily R1, the high and the downward sloping trend line of the consolidation (resistance becomes support-successful retest). The Euro terminated the continuation pattern on the 5 min chart and market broke through yesterdays high with the beginning of the new hourly candle after the previous one closed strongly at resistance (yesterdays high-Breakout trading).

Recent main support and resistance levels have been the low of October 1st and September 10th and the high of last Tuesday. Yesterdays high (news spike) is also likely to play an important S/R role.

Daily Support and Resistance EURO Fibonacci retracement

4 hour Daily EURO Fibonacci retracement, Resistance Levels

hourly EURO Support/ Resistance

5 min Support and Resistance

The Chart Analysis of the trading days before


On the daily chart (first chart) we see that the EUR/USD created a hammer candlestick pattern yesterday. Market moved higher and the Euro is currently trading at the low of September 10th at 1.2755 (pink line) and the daily 10 SMA. Slightly above is the hourly 200 SMA, the weekly Pivot point and the daily R2.

Yesterdays high at 1.2729 (thick blue line below) initially acted as resistance but after the level got broken the blue line acted as support and market bounced back from yesterdays high (successful retest, changing role of daily S/R levels). The rising 20 SMA on the hourly chart also provided support at 7 a.m. together with the consolidation price zone (green ellipse, orange arrow) and again at 4 p.m..

1 hour  Hammer Chart Pattern | Daily S/R | SMA

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Key Support and Resistance levels - forex day trading signals

Key Support and Resistance levels ~ forex day trading signals

Monthly and Daily Support/ Resistance

Monthly and Daily SR zones

Daily Support Resistance

Monthly Support Resistance

On the daily chart we see the importance of the key level at 1.2456 (monthly low of March 2009-purple line).

1 hour Daily Support Resistance

5 min Support Resistance

The Euro consolidated at the hourly 20 SMA in yesterdays late US session and resumed its up trend in the Asian session. The Euro moved up to the 100 % fib extension (5 min chart). From there, the Euro fell back into the price range of the prior consolidation and the Euro formed a kind of Butterfly pattern on the 5 min chart. Market moved to the 127 % fib extension (target of the butterfly: 127 or 161), which coincided with the 20 SMA on the 4 -hour chart before the Euro bounced back and moved below the low of the butterfly pattern (reversal pattern).


The 5 min chart also shows that the breakout above the recent high at 1.2524 did not get confirmed and market cleared the stops and limit orders above the recent high before the Euro reversed.

The prior consolidation pattern, the pivot point and the 61.80 % fib retracement terminated the retracement up to 1.2515 and market resumed its down trend. However, the Euro found strong support at the monthly low (March 2009) at 1.2456 as well as the daily S1 and weekly S1 and the 5 min breakout candle of yesterdays low (stop fishing-first test) did not get confirmed. The Euro moved up and found some resistance at the hourly 10 and 20 SMA (green circle on hourly chart).

The Euro resumed its downtrend, formed a bear flag and breached the monthly support initially with the beginning of the new 4-hour candle at 4 p.m. after the prior 4-hour candle already touched (respected) the monthly support. However, The Euro could not confirm a break below the monthly support on the 5 min chart and market bounced back from the daily low of June 12th (pink line) and the 100 % fib extension (hourly, 5 min chart).

The Euro moved up from the support level and formed a bull flag on the 5 min chart at about 4:30 p.m.. Furthermore, the hourly candle closing at 5 p.m. shows a strong rejection (pin bar) after the unconfirmed breach of the monthly support level. After the close of the hourly candle at 5 p.m. (confirmation of the strong pin bar) market initially moved up further from the small bull flag and cleared the stops above 1.25 level. The Euro found some resistance above the recent high (stop clearing target reached, 200 SMA on the 5 min chart).


Consolidation price zones (particularly the middle of this zone) very often provide some support/resistance at least for a temporary small bounce when price reaches this price zone again particularly for the first time (however, if one candle closes in the zone (respecting of the level) then the next might move through the consolidation price zone without a bounce (strong trend)). This price behaviour is visible in most of the circled consolidations on the 5 min chart for example the Euro found support at around 10 p.m. GMT, which is likely to be a consequence of the consolidation price zone at around 4 p.m. yesterday. Similarly, the consolidation in the late US session yesterday is likely to be the reason for todays support at this price level.The small consolidation at about 1.30 at the monthly support might not be a good example due to the Timing setup (4.p.m. and the strong tendency of the market to clear stops below highs/lows).

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