False and True Breakout Patterns - forex gold trading signals

False and True Breakout Patterns ~ forex gold trading signals

Euro Dollar Breakout

False and True Breakout Patterns

On the weekly time frame we see that EUR/USD closed right at the weekly trend line (respected it). However, it is unclear how strong the support from the weekly trend line (low from June 2010 and January 2012) will be during the next weeks.

Weekly Support Resistance trading

Timing of the Breakout

On the 4 hour chart EUR/USD strongly bounced back from the support zone at 1.2641 and in the following EUR/USD moved up to each resistance level (EUR/USD Market Update 18.05.12), touched it (respected it) and broke each resistance level in the beginning of the succeeding 4-hour candle (Timing) (see also 5 min chart below).

Finally, EUR/USD moved up to the weekly trend line (orange line) and found resistance there, also due to the 61.80 % fib retracement of the recent swing down at about 1.2783, daily R2 and the 100 % fib extension from the recent swing up from 1.2641 to b at c at about 1.2790 (see 5 min chart).

4 hour chart V shape turn around Trading pattern

Breakout candle

On the 5 min chart, we see that all three breakout candles occurred in the beginning of the succeeding 4 hour candle (12, 4 p.m. 8 p.m. Timing) after each prior 4 hour candle touched the resistance level. The breakout of the breakout candle 2 did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart  so that in the following price moved back in the consolidation. Another nice three wave consolidation took place before the next breakout occurred. Finally, EUR/USD closed around the weekly trend line.

5 min false and true breakout chart analysis

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Key Support Resistance Levels - free forex trading signals daily

Key Support Resistance Levels ~ free forex trading signals daily

Important Support/ Resistance

Key S/R Levels in the EUR/USD

Key Support/ Resistance Levels 

4-hour Euro Chart

Daily 20 SMA and Pivots

The Euro Dollar moved up to the 61.80 % fib extension (A-B at C). Today, market bounced back from this resistance level. The monthly pivot and daily 20 SMA (purple line) currently act as support. The low of January at 1.2624 (orange line) and the low of August 2010 at 1.2588 (purple line) are key Support and Resistance levels.

On the 4-hour chart (left) we see that the Euro respected the orange line and the 4-hour 10-SMA (red line). However, after the close of the bearish 4-hour candle at 12 a.m. (red circle-left) (Timing setup) the Euro fell below the orange line/ 10 SMA.

On the 1 hour chart (below) we see that the 12 a.m. hourly candle (A) respected the daily pivot at 1.2598. The 1 p.m. candle penetrated the pivot point and respected the weekly pivot at 1.2586 and the purple line (August 2010 low) but closed above the daily pivot on the hourly chart. However, the 3 p.m. hourly candle resumed the down trend and penetrated the already touched/ respected support levels (second test). The Euro found support at the monthly pivot point key level.

1 hour EurUsd key S/R levels

The price zone of the circled consolidation (blue) from Friday also provided some temporary support.

 On the 5 min chart (below) we had a kind of inverted Head and Shoulder in the Asian session with the green neckline and a prolonged left shoulder at the key support level of the low of January (orange line). At 11 a.m. we see a typical 3-wave consolidation at the support level (orange line) before the Euro resumed its downtrend. The duration of the consolidation is the same like the duration of the prior 5-min down swing. Most of the circled candles on the 5 min chart show how price bounced at key support/ resistance levels

5 min Euro US Dollar 

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Trendline break - free forex trading signals sms

Trendline break ~ free forex trading signals sms

Trendline Break Confirmation

Understanding price Breakouts

Daily 10 Moving Average SMA

On the daily chart (left) we see that EUR/USD found resistance at the 10 SMA and monthly S2 so that in the following price dropped down.

1 hour Technical Chart Analysis Forex

SMA Trading

On the hourly chart analysis above we see that the 200 SMA also provided resistance in the same area like the daily 10 SMA. EUR/USD only made a slightly higher high yesterday at about 1.2825 (stop fishing) whereby the 5 min  breakout candle at 8.50 p.m. did not get confirmed due to the missing close of the succeeding 5 min candles above the high of the breakout candle (not shown).

EUR/USD dropped down from this high (point A) and found temporary support at the 20 SMA (purple line) and the prior consolidation price zone at point B. In the European session market broke through the 20 SMA and touched/ respected the red trendline with the 9 a.m..hourly candle (red circle). With the beginning of the next hourly candle (10 a.m.) market immediately broke through the now weaker (after the hourly touch-Timing) trendline-support at 10 a.m. after the small consolidation (see 5 min chart analysis) finished with the start of the new hourly candle (10 a.m.).

In the following, EUR/USD formed  a 3-wave consolidation (green circle on hourly chart analysis) at the 20 SMA on the 4-hour chart (not shown), daily S1 and the 161% fib extension from A-B at C (hourly) at about 1.2739 and the 61.80 % fib extension from A-B at C (5 min chart analysis) before price broke through it with the developing of the new 4 hour candle at 4.p.m (not shown). EUR/USD went down to the next support level at the 61 % fib retracement at 1.2712 and the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E (hourly chart analysis) where price currently consolidates.

5 min technical chart analysis forex euro

 3-wave consolidation

On the 5 min chart analysis above we see that the recent 3-wave consolidation (DEF) (green circle on the hourly) formed a lower low (E) and  a higher high (F) in the consolidation. This kind of consolidation pattern is very often followed by a strong wave in the trend direction (down) as many breakout-traders got trapped (E, F) in the wrong direction, which often fuels the momentum. The small bear flag on the right of the 5 min chart analysis was the respecting of the green trendline in particular and the consolidation (circled) between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. before price resumes the downward trend.
The breakout candle 1 at 1 p.m.breached again the weekly pivot point but  the breakout did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart (point D)


Update: The recent downward move started at 8 p.m. after the 61.80 % fib retracement at 1.2712 was respected by the 4-hour candle opening at 4 p.m.. With the beginning of the new 4-hour candle (opening at 8 p.m.) the underlying support zone got weaker (61.80 % fib retracement got already touched) and price broke through it after a nice 3-wave consolidation on the 5 min chart between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. just before the 8 p.m. 4-hour candle opened..

Trendline break on the 16th of October

EUR/USD confirmed the break of the hourly trendline

The Euro confirmed the break of the hourly resistance at 1.2991 (blue line) and the daily R1 with the beginning of the new hourly/ 4-hour candle at 8 a.m. (Timing Setup). The 100 % Fibonacci extension from the recent swing up (11 - 12th of October) moved to the daily low of October 15th (Yesterday) provided resistance so far at around 1.3057.

The 1 hour Euro Chart analysis below also shows a Butterfly sell pattern, important Fibonacci support and Fibonacci resistance at the 61.80 % and 100 % level.

1 hour Trendline break confirmation

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Usdcad Ready For Bullish Breakout - forex trading book reviews

Usdcad Ready For Bullish Breakout ~ forex trading book reviews

In my last post on Usdcad, I mentioned a triangle correction. If this correction holds and break upside, I will look forward to take a buy despite my overall bearish bias.

Presently, by the intraday chart, price has completed the fifth leg of the triangle and its now  going up.

 

This intra day upward move looks impulsive ( especially when viewed on the 15min chart) 

 

According to the wave pattern on 1hr, this first impulsive move should break out of the triangle if it is anything serious. 

 

The following correction should retrace to the break point of the triangle and a buy trade can be taken if price doesnt fall back to the triangle massively.

 

 

 

If price behaves this way, there is a high propensity of price getting to 1.2900 which a resistance level. 1.2800 is a closer resistance and we must watch how price reacts to it.

 

If price behaves otherwise and fall back to the triangle, more analysis will be needed as a very complex correction is at stake and care should be taken.

 

As price gives more data, we can see what its next movement could be.

 

You can scroll down to read some of the recent analysis I did on Usdcad for better understanding

I will be here to update you.

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Eurusd Completion Of Bearish Cycle - auto forex trading reviews

Eurusd Completion Of Bearish Cycle ~ auto forex trading reviews

This market has for long crashed down. I am one of the people waiting for a turn. With the completion of the long term bearish correction, price is expected to move up. 

A trigger is needed and it seems we have now.

 

From the weekly chart I have below shows the wave analysis from the beginning of this millenium 2000till date, during which we have a five wave impulsive move followed by a zigzag corrective patter. 

 

The B leg of of this zigzag is a triangle formation.

 Triangles are known to usually precede the end of a run. Price broke out massively in a trendy impulsive move ( this can be seen clearly on the daily chart). 

 

The C leg of the zigzag completes a 100% extension of A leg from B leg which is a very typical fibonacci relationship in zigzag corrections.

 

 

 

 Price is expected to turn from here to 1.1800 resistance, 1.2600-1.3000 ( breakpoint retest of the triangle) and if the long term bullish trend resumes, price go higher and higher.

Always check here for updates of the move and how I intend dealing with price actions along the way.

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Breakout Confirmation - fxcm forex trading signals

Breakout Confirmation ~ fxcm forex trading signals

Un-/ Confirmed Breakout Candle

Fib Retracement and Fib Extension

Failed Breakout candle

On the hourly chart we see that we consolidated (ABC) again "overnight", however, this time we broke the consolidation to the upside, which lifted the market up to the daily R1 at 1.26 (D) before market turned around and breached yesterdays low (orange line-E). Market found some support at the weekly S2, daily S1 and the 100 % fib extension (Z-A at D) in the American session.


The red line on the hourly chart shows the important low (23 May) after the recent impulsive move down. Yesterdays two breakout candles (at 8 a.m. and 6 p.m.) did not get confirmed by a lower close of the succeeding candles below the range of the breakout candles on the hourly chart. The purple line shows the low of the second  breakout candle which did not get confirmed by a close below this line/candle during the consolidation. This non confirmation might be a reason for the upside breakout of the consolidation.

1 hour Explaining Technical Chart Analysis

The following upside swing on the hourly chart above (7 a.m.) respected the 61.80 % fib retracement from the prior down swing (Z-A) with the close of the 8 a.m. hourly candle (F) at this level (1.2582) before the succeeding hourly candle made a false breakout (closed inside of the body of the preceding hourly candle and no Breakout Confirmation on the 5 min chart).

Todays high was the end of the larger three wave consolidation pattern (triangle ZCD green lines)) which started after yesterdays false breakout at 9 a.m, where price turned around in a V shape pattern at the support level + 61.80 fib extension.

5 min Understanding Technical Chart Analysis in Forex

On the 5 min chart we see that the breakout candle at 9:10 a.m. (1) (after the prior hourly candle closed at the 61.80 % fib retracement) did not get confirmed. Market consolidated between 10 and 11:15 a.m. and price broke down and moved to the 100 % fib extension (ab=cd)  at (2). The prior consolidation gave resistance to the following upside swing (3) and market reversed and went down with strong momentum. We see that market tried to defend the red line (low from two days ago) (4), however, market dropped down strongly at 1:25 p.m..

The Euro breached yesterdays low (orange line) but the two breakout candles did not get confirmed and market created a kind of wedge pattern. The 1 p.m. hourly candle respected (closed at) the weekly S2.

During the new trading hour (2 p.m.) market got pushed down by the decreasing 10 SMA and breached only temporarily the weekly S2 to bounce back at the daily S1 to trigger the wedge pattern breakout to the upside (5). The up move found resistance in the price zone of the small consolidation, the 200 SMA and particularly the red line (6).

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Gap Trading and Fibonacci Analysis - free forex trading signals indicators

Gap Trading and Fibonacci Analysis ~ free forex trading signals indicators

Fibonacci levels

How to trade a market gap

After the recent price rejection and the taking out of some major market lows (EUR/USD Market Recap 23.05.12), the EURO consolidated in the price range zone around 1.2550 during recent trading days (see 4-hour chart). The recent market low from Fridays trading session at 1.2496 occurred at the 100 % Fibonacci Extension from A-B at C and the round number -1.25 (4-hour chart).

4 hour EURUSD  Market Gap Trading

1 hour Forex  Market Gap Analysis

The pice gap down

The EUR/USD market gaped up and found resistance at the market low from January 2012 at 1.2625 (pink line). Market price slightly penetrated (3) the high from the 24th of May (stop fishing) at 1.2620 before market price turned around.

On the hourly chart, the circled consolidation during the Asian session (2), the 20 SMA (hourly-purple line),  daily R1 plus the 200 MA on the 5 min chart held the market for a while before EUR/USD broke down at 2 p.m. (5).

Market respected (hourly close at) the support level of the red line (market low from May 23 on the hourly chart), the green trend line at 1.2545 (hourly chart) (4) and also the 61.80 %  Fibonacci Retracement, 100 % Fibonacci extension, the daily pivot point at this support zone (red circle) before market price went down a bit further immediately in the beginning of the new trading hour at 3 p.m. (Breakout Timing). However, market price seems to consolidate around this key support level and might calm down on todays US Memorial day.

Fridays close at around 1.2518 (Market gap close) and the surrounding consolidation (1) might provide some further support.

5 min Euro US Dollar  technical chart analysis

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Flag Patterns Pivots and SMA - real time forex trading signals free

Flag Patterns Pivots and SMA ~ real time forex trading signals free

Chart Analysis of the Euro

Daily Pivot Point

1 hour Fib Extension

Price Zone of the Consolidation pattern

 Today in the Asian session EUR/USD went lower but market found support at the gap close from the trading day before at 1.2518 and the tight price zone of the consolidation pattern at this price level (Z).  The Euro moved up from this support price level (C) and penetrated the daily pivot point (1.2563) (D) but found resistance in the price zone of yesterdays consolidation pattern (B). Since then EUR/USD is trading lower.

5 min Euro us dollar chart analysis

Bull flag

 On the 5 min chart we see that yesterdays consolidation price zone at about 1.2540 (1) provided some resistance (2) before market went up further. The daily low from May 23 at 1.2545 (red line) still seems to have some impact (red circles). Market consolidated (3) (Bull flag) and closed (7 a.m. hourly candle) at the red line before market broke out of the bull flag initially at the beginning of the new hourly candle at 8 a.m.(breakout candle).

The breakout candle respected (closed at) the daily pivot point, consolidated there (4) and broke through it triggered by the increasing 10 SMA on the 5 min chart. However, the breakout of the following small bull flag (5) just above the pivot point only reached the 61.80 % fib extension (a-b at c) (rejection) and the Euro turned around. Market price respected and then moved below the 10 and 20 SMA on the 5 min chart.

The EUR/USD market traded in a tight 20 pip range between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. capped by the 200 SMA before market created a typicalthree swing consolidation pattern (ABC), which also can be regarded as a bull flag from the previous swing down (hourly chart) (the first swing/ wave (A) in the consolidation terminated at the 61.80 % fib retracement; the second wave (B) at the 61.80 % Fib extension from the previous swing down at A).

After the three swing consolidation pattern terminated (C) market broke down strongly (high momentum) and market took out the previous lows, particularly the recent low from 25th of May at 1.2496 (blue line). Market only initially respected the support zone of the daily S1, low from 25th of May and the 100 % fib extension (4:35 p.m.) before the Euro moved down further to find some support at the daily S2 pivot, the hourly 100 % fib extension (A-C at D) and the 161 % fib extension on the 5 min chart.

10 and 20 SMA

During the strong move down (5 min SMAs were far away from price) the 10 and 20 SMAs on the 1 min chart (not shown) seem to become the trigger signals, e.g. at 4:41 p.m. (6), as long as the momentum stayed strong and market did not reject the decreasing SMAs on the lower time frame-1 min-.

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Breakout candle - forex trading signals free download

Breakout candle ~ forex trading signals free download

Trading the Breakout

Unconfirmed Breakout candle

In the Asian Forex trading session

the Euro traded up to 1.2525 but then market started to move down sharply due to the market news about Spanish bond yields (see 5 min chart).

Daily Double Top pattern

5 min Market News Trading

hourly Timing Setup

From the chart technical perspective the Euro formed a bear flag at about 8 a.m. GMT on the 5 min chart before resuming its down trend.

The Euro breached the weekly S1 and the monthly low of March 2009 initially after the 8 a.m. hourly candle closed at this level (red circle) and the new hourly candle started (Breakout Timing for Trading; 9 a.m. market news).

The strong bearish 5 min "news" breakout candle at 9 a.m. triggered the market order stops below the recent lows, particularly the low of the 8th of June at 1.2435 (pink line) and the stops below the March 2009 support level at 1.2456, which held the market this week.

However, the breakout candle at 9 a.m did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart (no close of the succeeding candles below the range of the breakout candle).

 The Euro found support at the daily S2 and the 61.80 % Fibonacci Extension (A-B at C) on the daily chart (stop clearing below the recent lows accomplished- first test).

The 5 min candle at 9:15 a.m.breached the daily S2 but closed above it and also in the range of the prior breakout candle and the Euro started to consolidate around the 1.2435 level (pink line-June 8th).

On the 5 min chart we see that the Euro found resistance at the pink line before breaching it to the upside.

The Euro closed above the daily S1 at 12.15 but found resistance at the weekly S1 so that market fell back into the consolidation around the pink line.

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False True Breakout - free forex trading signals update hourly

False True Breakout ~ free forex trading signals update hourly

True or False Breakout Trendline Break

Breakout Candle Confirmation

Weekly Support/ Resistance Forex Trading

Trendline Analysis

On the weekly chart we see that we breached the weekly low at 1.2588 in 2010 and the January low 2012. The recent trendline (green) could not hold the market after the trendline got respected last week. 

In general a trendline is stronger when the test of  it is not so early after the trendine got created. In this case the trend line came into existence due to the January low 2012 combined with the low in 2010 and the trendline got already tested in May 2012 (much to early to give strong support). EUR/USD is now clearing the stops below these lows.

Daily Head and Shoulder target

On the daily chart we see that market reached the classical Head and Shoulders target (see also EUR/USD Market Analysis (15.05.12))  at about 1.2554. Furthermore this price zone is likely to provide some support due to the 161% fib extension from C-D at E, the 61.80 % fib extension from E-F at G. The clearing of the stops under the recent lows is a typical target of price movement and can give some support - manipulative stop clearing accomplished.

1 hour Trendline Break Signal

Breakout Trading 

The Difference between true and false breakouts

We had a similar consolidation (blue circle) like yesterday (EUR/USD Market Recap 22.05.12)(green circle). Both 3 wave consolidations had a lower point B and higher point C, which often precedes a strong trend continuation. Point B slightly breached the recent lows (blue and pink line) and the weekly S1, monthly S3 but the hourly candle closed at the monthly S3.

So the first breakout lower failed (5 min chart) and market moved up to point C slightly above point A. This false breakout caught many breakout traders to early who had there limit orders below the low of yesterdays strong daily downward candle.

However, market did not confirm the first breakout and turned around at the recent lows + the weekly S1, monthly S3 after the slight breach at 9 a.m. GMT and closed above the recent high (point A) to trigger some of their stops (point C). At point C market finished the 3 wave consolidation at the resistance of the 20 SMA (purple line) and went down for the second true breakout.

In the Asian session at 1 a.m. GMT the monthly S3 got already touched (weaken), which increased the chance of at least a breach of this level.

The 2 p.m. hourly candle respected (closed at) the monthly S3 just before the true breakout occurred (Breakout Timing). The  decreasing 10 and 20 SMA (red and purple line) also provided resistance and pushed price down.
 

5 min True/ False Breakout Confirmation

On the 5 min chart we see that the breakout candle 1 at 9.10 a.m. occurred just after the prior 5 min candle touched the low from 18th of May (blue line). However, this breakout (blue line) did not get confirmed and market also did not accomplish to close below Januarys low (pink line) so that market reversed and triggered some stops of the breakout traders by creating the new high.

However, the false breakout weaken  the the confluence support level of the monthly S3, weekly S1, daily S1 and the lows of the 18th of May and January due to the breaching so that the second breakout had a high chance to break this support level.

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