Trendline break - free forex trading signals sms

Trendline break ~ free forex trading signals sms

Trendline Break Confirmation

Understanding price Breakouts

Daily 10 Moving Average SMA

On the daily chart (left) we see that EUR/USD found resistance at the 10 SMA and monthly S2 so that in the following price dropped down.

1 hour Technical Chart Analysis Forex

SMA Trading

On the hourly chart analysis above we see that the 200 SMA also provided resistance in the same area like the daily 10 SMA. EUR/USD only made a slightly higher high yesterday at about 1.2825 (stop fishing) whereby the 5 min  breakout candle at 8.50 p.m. did not get confirmed due to the missing close of the succeeding 5 min candles above the high of the breakout candle (not shown).

EUR/USD dropped down from this high (point A) and found temporary support at the 20 SMA (purple line) and the prior consolidation price zone at point B. In the European session market broke through the 20 SMA and touched/ respected the red trendline with the 9 a.m..hourly candle (red circle). With the beginning of the next hourly candle (10 a.m.) market immediately broke through the now weaker (after the hourly touch-Timing) trendline-support at 10 a.m. after the small consolidation (see 5 min chart analysis) finished with the start of the new hourly candle (10 a.m.).

In the following, EUR/USD formed  a 3-wave consolidation (green circle on hourly chart analysis) at the 20 SMA on the 4-hour chart (not shown), daily S1 and the 161% fib extension from A-B at C (hourly) at about 1.2739 and the 61.80 % fib extension from A-B at C (5 min chart analysis) before price broke through it with the developing of the new 4 hour candle at 4.p.m (not shown). EUR/USD went down to the next support level at the 61 % fib retracement at 1.2712 and the 100 % fib extension from C-D at E (hourly chart analysis) where price currently consolidates.

5 min technical chart analysis forex euro

 3-wave consolidation

On the 5 min chart analysis above we see that the recent 3-wave consolidation (DEF) (green circle on the hourly) formed a lower low (E) and  a higher high (F) in the consolidation. This kind of consolidation pattern is very often followed by a strong wave in the trend direction (down) as many breakout-traders got trapped (E, F) in the wrong direction, which often fuels the momentum. The small bear flag on the right of the 5 min chart analysis was the respecting of the green trendline in particular and the consolidation (circled) between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. before price resumes the downward trend.
The breakout candle 1 at 1 p.m.breached again the weekly pivot point but  the breakout did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart (point D)


Update: The recent downward move started at 8 p.m. after the 61.80 % fib retracement at 1.2712 was respected by the 4-hour candle opening at 4 p.m.. With the beginning of the new 4-hour candle (opening at 8 p.m.) the underlying support zone got weaker (61.80 % fib retracement got already touched) and price broke through it after a nice 3-wave consolidation on the 5 min chart between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. just before the 8 p.m. 4-hour candle opened..

Trendline break on the 16th of October

EUR/USD confirmed the break of the hourly trendline

The Euro confirmed the break of the hourly resistance at 1.2991 (blue line) and the daily R1 with the beginning of the new hourly/ 4-hour candle at 8 a.m. (Timing Setup). The 100 % Fibonacci extension from the recent swing up (11 - 12th of October) moved to the daily low of October 15th (Yesterday) provided resistance so far at around 1.3057.

The 1 hour Euro Chart analysis below also shows a Butterfly sell pattern, important Fibonacci support and Fibonacci resistance at the 61.80 % and 100 % level.

1 hour Trendline break confirmation

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Breakout Confirmation - fxcm forex trading signals

Breakout Confirmation ~ fxcm forex trading signals

Un-/ Confirmed Breakout Candle

Fib Retracement and Fib Extension

Failed Breakout candle

On the hourly chart we see that we consolidated (ABC) again "overnight", however, this time we broke the consolidation to the upside, which lifted the market up to the daily R1 at 1.26 (D) before market turned around and breached yesterdays low (orange line-E). Market found some support at the weekly S2, daily S1 and the 100 % fib extension (Z-A at D) in the American session.


The red line on the hourly chart shows the important low (23 May) after the recent impulsive move down. Yesterdays two breakout candles (at 8 a.m. and 6 p.m.) did not get confirmed by a lower close of the succeeding candles below the range of the breakout candles on the hourly chart. The purple line shows the low of the second  breakout candle which did not get confirmed by a close below this line/candle during the consolidation. This non confirmation might be a reason for the upside breakout of the consolidation.

1 hour Explaining Technical Chart Analysis

The following upside swing on the hourly chart above (7 a.m.) respected the 61.80 % fib retracement from the prior down swing (Z-A) with the close of the 8 a.m. hourly candle (F) at this level (1.2582) before the succeeding hourly candle made a false breakout (closed inside of the body of the preceding hourly candle and no Breakout Confirmation on the 5 min chart).

Todays high was the end of the larger three wave consolidation pattern (triangle ZCD green lines)) which started after yesterdays false breakout at 9 a.m, where price turned around in a V shape pattern at the support level + 61.80 fib extension.

5 min Understanding Technical Chart Analysis in Forex

On the 5 min chart we see that the breakout candle at 9:10 a.m. (1) (after the prior hourly candle closed at the 61.80 % fib retracement) did not get confirmed. Market consolidated between 10 and 11:15 a.m. and price broke down and moved to the 100 % fib extension (ab=cd)  at (2). The prior consolidation gave resistance to the following upside swing (3) and market reversed and went down with strong momentum. We see that market tried to defend the red line (low from two days ago) (4), however, market dropped down strongly at 1:25 p.m..

The Euro breached yesterdays low (orange line) but the two breakout candles did not get confirmed and market created a kind of wedge pattern. The 1 p.m. hourly candle respected (closed at) the weekly S2.

During the new trading hour (2 p.m.) market got pushed down by the decreasing 10 SMA and breached only temporarily the weekly S2 to bounce back at the daily S1 to trigger the wedge pattern breakout to the upside (5). The up move found resistance in the price zone of the small consolidation, the 200 SMA and particularly the red line (6).

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Double Top and Doji - dailyfx forex trading signals

Double Top and Doji ~ dailyfx forex trading signals

Double Top on the Daily Chart

Doji pattern

Daily Double Top

1-hour Moving Average

Flag pattern

The Euro formed a Double Top chart Pattern whereby the second top is a doji on the daily chart. The EUR/USD initially moved down and reached the price target of the Double Top Chart pattern on thursday (EUR/USD Market Recap 21.06.12), which is the breach of the low between the two tops at 1.2557 (low of June 18th-blue line). The Euro found temporary support at the daily 20 SMA after market breached the blue line. The Euro is currently close to the 61.80 % fib retracement (1.2464) of the recent upswing (daily chart).

Flag pattern

On the 4-hour chart (left) we see that a kind of bearish flag chart pattern was formed. Today market triggered the bear flag and the Euro resumed its downtrend. The 10 SMA (red line) on the 4-hour and 1-hour chart pushed the Euro down. The Euro found some support at the 61.80 % fib extension from the recent swing down (A-B at C-see 4 hour chart).

5 min Flag pattern

The blue circles show some bear and bull flag chart patterns on the 5 min chart. The fib extension levels 61.80 % (initial target), usually 100 % and sometimes even 161 % (strong trend) are typical swing projection targets e.g. of the bull and bear flags. The swing down after the first bear flag moved  to the 161 % fib extension (breach of Fridays low-stop triggering). The swing down after the second bear flag only moved to the initial 61.80 % target and the swing up after the small bull flag reached the 100 % fib extension. The recent upswing on the 5 min chart found resistance at the 200 SMA and the 100 % fib extension.

The main question will be whether the Euro can make some larger retracements from the recent 61.80 fib extension on the 4-hour chart or whether the Euro is forming a new bear flag on the hourly/4-hour chart before resuming the down trend to the 100 % fib extension. The hourly 20 SMA and the 200 SMA on the 5 min chart currently provide some resistance.

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Trendline break Timing - dukascopy forex trading signals

Trendline break Timing ~ dukascopy forex trading signals

Trendline Analysis

When does a trendline break?

Daily Forex Chart Analysis

4 hour Trendline break Timing

Daily Chart patterns

On the daily chart (above) we see that yesterdays daily candle formed a doji and market formed a kind of double Top. The Euro dropped in todays European and US session and currently market penetrates the daily trendline and the Euro is close to the 20 SMA (purple line).

Breakout Timing 

On the 4-hour chart (left)  we see that the Euro touched (respected) the daily trendline (red) with the closing of the 4-hour candle at 4 p.m.. The Euro initially dropped further with the beginning of the new  4-hour candle starting at 4 p.m. (Timing) and the Euro penetrated the low of the 18th of June (green line).

hourly Support Resistance

On the hourly chart (left) we see that the Euro found resistance at the 61.80 % fib retracement (1) yesterday in the US session.

Today, the Euro found support at the monthly pivot point in the Asian session (2) and moved up to the 20 SMA (3) where the Euro bounced back. The Euro moved down and penetrated the monthly Pivot point at 8 a.m. whereby the breach of the recent low (grey line, (4)) did not get confirmed on the 5 min chart (stop fishing).

From there, market moved up and finally penetrated the daily pivot point at 1.2691 (5), however, the Euro did not confirm the breach on the 5 min chart (no higher close of the succeeding candles above the range of the breakout candle at 12:20 p.m.) and market formed a strong one-hour rejection candle (long tail of the 12 a.m. candle).

In the following, the Euro dropped down strongly. The 2 p.m. hourly candle respected (touched) the support level at 1.2624 (pink line-January low, orange circle) and market initially breached this level with the beginning of the 3 p.m. hourly candle.

The same pattern occurred at the hourly 200 SMA and the daily trend line (red line). Market touched this support level and immediately after the close of the hourly and 4-hour candle at 4 p.m. (Timing) the Euro breached this support level and resumed its downward trend (black circle).

5 min Support Resistance

The 5 min chart (above) shows the failed breakout confirmation at the grey line (A) and the daily pivot point (B). The red circle illustrates typical price behaviour around support and resistance. The 1:35 p.m. candle breached the monthly pivot but could not close below, however, the second breach got confirmed on the 5 min chart from the 2:05 p.m. candle.

The Euro moved up again but market could not regain the prior support level (no confirmed close above the  monthly pivot). The Euro also found resistance at the decreasing 10 SMA (red line), and the 5 min candle at 2:15 p.m. closed as a doji. The monthly pivot point now acted as resistance and price moved down. The green circle shows the bearish consolidation (bear flag) at the pink line (January low).

The Euro breached this level at 3 p.m. initially after the hourly candle closed at this support level. The same price behaviour occurred at 4 p.m.. In a strong bearish or bullish environment market often close at key levels and after market respected these levels with the candle close these levels often get breached with the beginning of the new candle (either for a false or confirmed breakout-Timing). This price behaviour is visible on all time frames. The blue circle on the 5 min chart shows the retest of the orange line (low of August 2010) after this level got breached (confirmed). The 20 SMA also pushed the price further down (trend continuation).

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